This site is really unrealiable. It is based on browser’s user agent. It has spikes like this regurally and always Linux community talks about it.
And it was at 2.92% in Oct 23, so that’s approx 38% increase in 4 months! If we keep this level of growth for a year, we’re looking at 7.67% marketshare in a year from now!
What if its exponential growth?
What if its exponential growth?
Then we should expect that in ~35 years, 200% of users will be using desktop linux.
The math chec…wait, no. That math doesn’t check out at all.
Ok, fine, I’ll do the actual curve fitting instead of just estimating.
Eyeballing it, were saying 1% in 2013, 2% in 2021, 3% in 2023?
Gives us a fit of…
0.873 * exp(0.118 * x)
So…
Correct the equation and solve for x
x_target = np.log(200 / a) / b
Calculate the actual year
year_target = 2013 + x_target
print(year_target)
In ~2058 everyone will be using two linux desktops at once.
If you don’t think of the increase in speed of new users as continuing to increase exponentially.
Isn’t that the point of the exponent in the exponential function?
Linux on the main and second computers‽ Wow!
Running a linux vm on linux
yo dawg…
I believe I said it in a different post but 2023 was the year of the Linux desktop. Hardware like Bluetooth and webcams just work. Applications and games have gotten so much easier install thanks to Flatpak and Steam.
Now Plasma 6 is upon us. HDR could be supported this year. At this point avoid Linux only if it’s missing a specific app you need.
I’ve had a Linux desktop since 2003, over 20 years now. 20 years of facepalm after facepalm every time I saw people get fucked by a windows machine.
Go Linux!
Hey, I started in 2003 too! What was your first distro? Mine was mandrake, from the cd on the cover of a magazine.
I started with red hat with KDE, which then became fedora, I believe. Then switched to Ubuntu with KDE which then split to Kubuntu. Then tried mint for a while, then back to Kubuntu which I still use.
Now I’m actually considering a different distro, because systemd and snap are pissing me the f off, badly. Ubuntu keeps pushing it, so I’m out. Only, now I need to find basically Ubuntu without system d and snap
Desktop linux has become great since I first tried installing it in 2002. I remember being in my barracks and I had to switch back to windows because I had no way to get the modem drivers I needed.
As amazing as the linux desktop experience has become, windows has really done this to itself. The windows experience 10 years ago was ‘fine’. Like it wasn’t amazing, it could be improved upon, but it did what it needed to do without bothering the user much.
Windows the OS has lost the thread completely. Its a travesty. I no longer recommend for non-power users to build their own PC (I’ve helped several family members who were going down the “I want a powerful computer, should I buy a mac?” direction and would steer them to build-a-pc+windows) strictly because Windows has become something entirely different than an operating system. Unfortunately, no Linux desktop experience is quite to the point where I could recommend it and not-expect to get a constant barrage of calls from a family member when they need to install a basic piece of software or their blue tooth headphones wont connect. Because of what Windows has decided to become, after decades of being anti-mac because of their ‘ecosystem’/ anti-collaborative approach, I’ve turned a corner and now recommend Macs for non-power users, but linux for every one else.
This increase in popularity has the potential to create a sea-change in that regard, especially if we can get people to support (financially) the teams that are putting these distros together. I really need a linux distro to recommend that won’t get me calls where I have to hop in and figure out why an nvidia driver that was working suddenly stopped working, what the hell is blueman doing, issues with audio drivers, issues with software compatibility.
Like I cant reasonably put my MIL on a linux laptop that I put together for her and expect her to have a good experience. So she gets a mac. But my nieces and nephews? No they are starting linux from day 0.
Like I cant reasonably put my MIL on a linux laptop that I put together for her and expect her to have a good experience
Why not?
Cus I don’t want to get woken up at 6 AM to do tech support. I’m just not going to put Linux in front of someone who can’t do their own trouble shooting.
You can, no complaints from me, but I’m not going to do that.
Why do you assume you’re going to do tech support? Does your MIL have any specific proprietary software or hardware requirements?
Have you ever actually helped someone build a PC or convert from windows to linux?
Give it a shot some time.
I have, actually. I’ve converted both my elderly parents and aunt and uncle, over a decade ago, to Linux. They were first running Xubuntu, and now they’ve been running Zorin for the past couple of years. Both of them use an pure-Intel PC/laptops (no nVidia, no proprietary drivers) and they have zero issues. All they need is a browser for Facebook/email/etc, some light document editing, and the occasional prints/scans.
Linux works 100% perfectly for their needs, since all they’re doing is basic computing tasks. In fact the whole reason why I switched them over in the first place back then was because I got tired of doing tech support every time their Windows crapped out.
Well good for you. I think you made some good hardware choices to support that.
I’m more than happy to take your number and send people I switch over to linux your way when their bluetooth stops working.
Let’s be fair, Bluetooth breaks on everything. It’s not choosy.
While I get the „windows bad“ point, linux works for your mother in law a lot better than for you because point and click has always worked well for linux from the reports I read. Please do not steer the tech illiterate to apple. It is dumbed down exactly to attract these figures. If you install a stable distro and dont go with need newest everything that linux elitists spew around, you‘re golden. System76 and Tuxedo Computers are the way to go as far as I can see atm. They even have their consumer ready builds of linux.
I’ve had two System76’s. Neither was a fricitonless experience. Its MUCH better than it used to be. But its not frictionless. I
If you arent committed to doing your own tech support, and lots of it, don’t expect things to go smoothly. They are way better than boutique linux distros, but by no means are they perfect.
We shouldn’t delude ourselves into thinking something is some way when it isn’t, just because we wish it was. The Linux desktop experience is 100x smoother than it was 25 years ago. The Linux desktop experience this year is 10x better than it was 10 years ago. But its still not quite there yet. Its not frictionless. It doesn’t ‘just work’, when people need to use software like MS office or teams. If I put someone on Linux who isn’t committed to the work it takes to run Linux (and it takes work; its easier than ever, but it takes work), I’ve just created an ‘anti-linux’ user; some one who will never be convinced to convert because they had a negative experience. One bad experience is all it takes to turn someone off for life. If my goal is to convert as many people as possible to Linux, I’m better off stratifying the users into those I can convert now, and those I may have to wait another 2-5 years for Linux to ‘get there’ in terms of a frictionless experience.
I think desktop linux will get there, but its important to be realistic about where its at.
I get your point and I partially agree.
One thing I stumble over.
„Frictionless“
You will never get a frictionless FOSS experience. Not today, not in 100 years.
For one simple reason:
It’s not human for something to be frictionless. The reason we are used to „frictionless“ is because us using this software makes them money. Its the crazy perfectionism some of us experience when overly stressed. Its unachievable.
I use apple products and it is everything but frictionless. My sonos app is a buggy mess, the linux version works without fail. It looks worse but it functions 10 times better.
Frictionless is marketing speech, an image we reiterate to ourselves because we were manipulated into believing it. Showing you ads for new apps while you drive is another example why apple is making everything as smooth as they can. 30% of every sale goes to apple, for absolutely nothing. For the service that apt and flatpak provide and which snap tries badly to recreate.
Apple is a kiosk system, you can only change very few things. Replicating that in gnome for example isnt very hard once it is set up. Put debian stable under it and an amd gpu and your MIL has a machine that works pretty much forever.
But yes, linux is definitely not „frictionless“ and you absolutely need to throw away the tinker mindset when designing a consumer ready device. Partly because they have been shown how great autocracy works.
I mean, I would argue that today that some Linux experiences are smoother out of the box experience than windows. I did a highend gaming rig with windows set up for a neighbor who wanted to be able to do a racing sims (chair, wheel, pedals, the whole shebang). I couldn’t believe how difficult it all ended up being. All on the part of windows and what it has become as an OS. Like jaw dropping difficult.
Windows is actively adding friction to their experience, so Linux just needs to do better than that. And the friction points with Linux remaining are frankly, minor and solvable. The issues for me always seem to be WiFi/ Bluetooth/ and audio drivers. The second big friction point is software instillation. I don’t want to jump in on the flatpack drama, but being able to install software and have it ‘just work’ is the other issue with Linux. Oldschool windows got this completely right. You download an exe, double click, press yes a bunch of times, and now you have software that works.
Those two pain points, which I think will be solved in 2-5 years in some version of desktop Linux (and even more likely to be solved with increased adoption), and Linux could easily replace windows as the dominant desktop operating system. Great progress in all of this has been made. We’re very close.
So I’ll swap out ‘frictionless’ for ‘less friction than the competitive equivalent’. It just needs to be a bit better. We’re very close. A couple more years, a bit more adoption, and it wont even be a question. In some cases, the Linux experience is less friction than windows. In a few years, I hope that most Linux experiences will be less friction than windows. Once that’s the case, the whole paradigm shifts.
Okay, that I can agree with. Thanks for elaborating. Quick follow up question: what flatpak drama? I know of snap and their proprietary bs and recent scamware issues but besides the fact that flatpak can push proprietary software from a vendor I dont know of any issues.
Since you are asking for the drama, here is an example of discussion around them.
And I think the point that’s being made “that these are universal package mangers, except that they are anything but that”.
I don’t agree with the video whatsover, but I’m posting it as an example of what I consider the issue to be.
Its a classic example of:
If I want a naive user to be able to have software ‘just work’, this has to be resolved. Its just too frustrating for any one not fully committed to slog through.
Okayyyy, got it. So the standard argument against progression. Make the system work better for consumers but dont put stuff in that actually does that. Like we use this in german „wash me but dont make me wet“. Flatpak especially works well now. The fact that you cant actually break dependencies (no idea if that has been the case) now is also very cool. Its also much easier for the dev to make the app and package it once instead for each distro - you guessed it - to make it more consumer friendly.
The flatpak hate especially feels like thinly veiled elitism. I get that it should not be proprietary so fuck snap but flatpak is okay in my book. :)
I’ve had my computer-illiterate boomer parents buy Macs for over two decades now because I wanted to keep tech support to a minimum (and because I saw the writing on the wall for Microsoft’s abusiveness even back then). However, at this point their next computer is going to be running Linux because I genuinely expect it to be no more trouble than Mac OS.
(In fact, their “next computer” is really just likely to be their current Mac but with Linux installed on it, because it’s so old that the latest version of OS X it can run is EOL’d. To be clear, that is Apple deliberately making tech support trouble for me, in a way Linux never would.)
Agree and agree. I’m just waiting one more cycle.
