We can assume that all (Kremlin) numbers on the Russian economy are doctored to make people believe that Putin can fight this war for years and years to come.
AFAIK there is some solid open source intelligence out there, suggesting that russian economy is dire in some sectors.
Prices for consumer goods are the easiest example here.
You are right in that war makes the economy go brrrrrt in some sectors but the money spend there is thrown out of the window.
Every person who works to build new tanks is a person less to maintain bridges, roads and infrastructure in the oil and gas industry.
And when it comes to government spending in Russia, it means a lot of corruption will be happening and money flows to the top.
Every soldier on the frontline is a farmer or woodworker less back in mother Russia.
Families lose their main income when the father dies, even though the mother spend their last savings on a bullet proof vest that was at some point imported from China.
You have to keep in mind that the Russian economy is comparable to Italy or the Netherlands. The impact of the war on EU countries isnt noticeable compared to that. At worst, it gives us problems that we can easily solve with money.
Another thing about Russia is their demographic. They will lose and already lost a lot of their most productive workforce. Additionally a lot of young and well trained men left Russia in the last two years.
Even more try to stay in the university as long as possible to not get drafted.
Yes many good points, and I just read another economic report here, that together makes a more complete picture.
You are absolutely right Russia is fucked. Because while they are maintaining their economy by public spending. They have a serious problem with worker shortage.
This is not exactly news, but to sum it up, 1 million people leaving Russia, at least ½ a million either participating or a casualty of war. People participating in building the war machine, and finally the low demographic influx. Combined with increased public investments, and foreign sanctions.
It seems to me now, that despite the Russian economy being stressed, it is at the same time overheating, to barely maintaining status quo.
This is of course very different from what I stated earlier, but I got a bit of extra info. ;)
That means the Russian economy is in a bubble, except this is not just financial bubble, this is all of the Russian society, including public spending and a government dictated financial bubble, and as I understand it, even government dictated production at a loss. When that collapses, it will be really bad for Russia.
We can assume that all (Kremlin) numbers on the Russian economy are doctored to make people believe that Putin can fight this war for years and years to come.
AFAIK there is some solid open source intelligence out there, suggesting that russian economy is dire in some sectors. Prices for consumer goods are the easiest example here.
You are right in that war makes the economy go brrrrrt in some sectors but the money spend there is thrown out of the window. Every person who works to build new tanks is a person less to maintain bridges, roads and infrastructure in the oil and gas industry.
And when it comes to government spending in Russia, it means a lot of corruption will be happening and money flows to the top.
Every soldier on the frontline is a farmer or woodworker less back in mother Russia. Families lose their main income when the father dies, even though the mother spend their last savings on a bullet proof vest that was at some point imported from China.
You have to keep in mind that the Russian economy is comparable to Italy or the Netherlands. The impact of the war on EU countries isnt noticeable compared to that. At worst, it gives us problems that we can easily solve with money.
Another thing about Russia is their demographic. They will lose and already lost a lot of their most productive workforce. Additionally a lot of young and well trained men left Russia in the last two years. Even more try to stay in the university as long as possible to not get drafted.
Russia is so fucked man!
[Edit] lot of words
Yes many good points, and I just read another economic report here, that together makes a more complete picture.
You are absolutely right Russia is fucked. Because while they are maintaining their economy by public spending. They have a serious problem with worker shortage. This is not exactly news, but to sum it up, 1 million people leaving Russia, at least ½ a million either participating or a casualty of war. People participating in building the war machine, and finally the low demographic influx. Combined with increased public investments, and foreign sanctions.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-inflation-60-percent-falling-ruble-steve-hanke-2023-7 From the article: “According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Russian inflation expectations jumped to 11.1% in July.”
It seems to me now, that despite the Russian economy being stressed, it is at the same time overheating, to barely maintaining status quo. This is of course very different from what I stated earlier, but I got a bit of extra info. ;)
That means the Russian economy is in a bubble, except this is not just financial bubble, this is all of the Russian society, including public spending and a government dictated financial bubble, and as I understand it, even government dictated production at a loss. When that collapses, it will be really bad for Russia.