The world would be better off with a much weakened Russia. But Russia’s fall may not go smoothly.
  • kersploosh@sh.itjust.works
    173·
    1 year ago

    Is this just western pundits playing with “what if” scenarios, or are there actually signs of major splits inside Russia?

    • SnowdropDelusion@lemm.eeOP
      111·
      1 year ago

      I’ll bite, here’s a little list of the top of my head.

      1. They’ve had a failed invasion of Ukraine
      2. Rampant corruption
      3. Putin is getting old and frail
      4. Russia has a struggling economy where “Fortress Russia” is starting to fall short
      5. Drone strikes from Ukraine have been able to target major Russian cities.
      6. There was a mini-coup attempt by one of Putin’s closest allies where a standing army nearly made it to Moscow while shooting down multiple Russian military aircraft.
      • kersploosh@sh.itjust.works
        6·
        1 year ago

        The linked article hypothesizes “a rump Russia reduced to the area bounded by St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod.” Even given the country’s struggles, I have a hard time imagining large chunks of Russia breaking away. My question is whether there is evidence to believe that kind of split has become a real possibility. Neither Putin nor his successor would allow it without a serious fight given the immense value of the natural resources and sea ports Russia would lose.