Take it with a grain of salt, people, none of the trustworthy sources confirmed any of that - just a couple of Ukrainian outlets (understandable as psyop) and, well, yahoo news and the like.
As a Russian living in Russia and, obviously, closely following all the shit show, it does not seem like Wagner is going to do anything.
Then again, I’m not sure about shit after 24 Feb 2022.
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I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction. And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
PREFACE: Prior to 24 Feb 2022, I was really skeptical that Putin would start the war at all, though, so I might be really wrong here - I’m no expert, just a regular rusky Ivan with some opinions. Things in Russia aren’t really predictable at the moment.
And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
Unfortunately, all the tax-payers - remember, the government has no money of its own, only the money of its citizen and tax residents.
I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction.
Judging by the mutiny in June, I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines. The PMC itself will be probably be manipulated into control one way or another, either via a direct acquisition or some other scheme, all in attempt to smother the beast Putin himself had created.
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he’s very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he’s ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they’re not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn’t lived that lifestyle before (and won’t know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn’t any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
All that being said, the most important point is the following: Russia as a governmental entity has been very carefully engineering a society with as few leaders as possible, and succeeded well enough to make sure that our people just don’t really act on their desires and urges to protest en masse and for long; while it’s one thing for us, civilians, who aren’t armed, aren’t hardened by combat, aren’t used to real violence, the Wagner mercs aren’t really taught to be free-thinking individuals either, so even if they all want to storm Kremlin, I just don’t see that happening unless a figure powerful enough to lead them emerges.
I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines.
That’s what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a “skills interview and test” (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.
Then if the regular military catches wind of anyone’s pay, you can just say “they are an elite squad, some get paid more due to hazard pay”
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he’s very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he’s ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they’re not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn’t lived that lifestyle before (and won’t know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn’t any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
This is fascinating and the first I have heard of this. You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?
That’s what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a “skills interview and test” (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.
I don’t want to sound mean, but that sounds like a massive overcomplication from Putin’s side. To me, what you’re saying seems to make sense, but you and I are not Putin - I think neither of us is a narcissistic psychopath that’s been killing people en masse for at least a couple of dozen years. What makes sense to you or me might not necessary make any bit of sense to Putin - we wouldn’t have seen this war play out, nor the Crimea annexation, nor even Euromaidan, because without Putin’s egoistic attempts to control Ukraine via proxies (Yanukovich and the entire war in Donbass being the prime example) or directly.
If we start talking about this from positions of common sense, we’ll simply go back so far back in time that it’s just easier to assume that everyone would be better off without Putin as a whole in the first place, from the very beginning.
You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?
First of all, thank you! It’s probably my most cherished skill - really did open a lot of opportunities in my life in many ways. Not really sure I wouldn’t be rooting for Putin if it wasn’t for English leading me to more liberal places, first outside the Russian internet, then - interestingly enough - inside the Russian internet and Russia itself.
As for the English sources, I’m afraid I can’t recommend anything. Things I know and share are mostly courtesy of the Russian-native sources of various kind, complied in my mind over years and years of discourse.
Since links to other social media sites are forbidden by the rules here, I’ll leave a few easily-searchable sources below. Keep in mind that none of them are native English speakers, but all have their content readily available in English one way or another. It’s not as easy as I’d love it to be to share with you, but it’s the best sources I could think of to share with someone outside Russia, helping them understand what’s actually going on.
- Vlad Vexler (YouTube) - I can’t really recall who he is exactly, but it’s safe to say he’s been studying/looking at the Russian politics for many years now, and shares some insights with the English-speaking audience. He doesn’t live in Russia and, from what I can tell, hasn’t lived there for decades, so he is a little rusty and out of touch with things like motivations of the elites, the processes in the society, etc., but it’s a good enough source if you need an English-speaking source.
- Maxim Katz (YouTube) - a Russian-speaking politician, currently wanted by the Russian government and living in Israel until he can come back. Probably the best speaker we have right now. His production has gotten really professional since the beginning of the war in terms of subtitles, the topic coverage, upload frequency (as of yet, it’s daily, so there’s a lot of content if you’re interested) - very easy to follow, very humane, and extremely representative of the Russian society’s current demands and thoughts, despite everything people have to say. The channel covers a lot of topics, both from the liberal perspective and the more conservative/conformist one, trying to reach out to as many people as possible; sometimes they cover some things about the Russian opposition and the challenges it’s facing, which is a great peek into what’s going in Russian minds, too; sometimes they present some analysis on what’s to come in terms of the war or Russia or Putin, also making it very clear that their forecasts are extremely tentative due to the nature of such things in the situation Russia is in thanks to Putin; honestly. there’s so much Maxim and his team talk about that I wouldn’t be able to list everything here, but if you want to have a consistent, worthwhile and sensible insight into the country that Russia is today, this is probably the best option aside from regularly talking to someone inside (speaking of which, feel free to reach out, I’ll be happy to try and answer some questions; sometimes it makes me feel like I’m doing my little part in dissolving the myths about the obedient slavery-loving Russians that just crave to live under some mad dictatorships).
- Ekaterina Schulmann (YouTube) - an extremely experienced and professional political scientist. She does have a channel, but also gives interviews to various media outside Russia in English, so you’ll have an easier time with getting info from her. Her analysis and understanding of Russia are a little more complicated than that of Maxim’s and Vlad’s from above, but if you want a really thorough look across large swathes of content, both from her specifically and just featuring her, this is definitely the woman to follow.
- Ksenia Sobchak (YouTube and Telegram) - quite a big name in Russia in general, and now in more liberal media as well, but I can’t tell you much about her because she cover a wide variety of topics not just related to politics. Still, she’s another great example of someone trying to talk to both those pro war and those against - because, trust me, it’s a very complicated topic and throwing the former aside only helps Putin. Surely worth a few looks, especially over at YouTube with some subtitles.
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky (YouTube) - a bit more radial than the rest, but nonetheless worth checking out. The insights he offers are a little more outdated than that of Maxim’s because Mikhail has been living outside Russia for years now, and spent even more in jail prior - Putin didn’t like him for multiple reasons and dealt with him in a relatively nice way (took away his business and with that, a great workplace for millions of people; I think my father used to work at his company, UKOS, and it was definitely better than today’s Rosneft for him in particular and us as a family as a whole). I do believe he is worth checking out anyway because he brings his experience of being a very active member of the Russian society during the 90s and 00s.
I really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out!
I wouldn’t know what questions to even ask without first going through and watching the videos from what you posted.
I guess my own questions right now would be about technology and access to information.
Like how difficult is it to use the internet in Russia? Have you traveled internationally to have something to compare it to? I heard a lot of people use VPNs, do they worry a lot about being caught? What can’t you do without a VPN?
I am also curious if you consume any western media, and if so what are your favorite and least favorite outlets. I am also curious what western sources have seemed the most accurate to you about Russia in general, if any at all.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Honest at this point I wouldn’t even blink if Prigozhin popped up in the future to tell us they faked their deaths.
To be clear, I believe that he’s dead (and that it was probably an assassination by Putin), but so many other outrageous things have happened already little surprises me.
That’s the first thing I thought when I heard about his death. He should have known that Putin would likely want him dead, so pretending to board a plane that gets shot down is a pretty good way to fake your death. Does he use his fake death to plot revenge or to escape, never to be heard from again?
Who knows if Putin even wanted him dead. It could be a way for him to step out of the spotlight and let Putin show what happens to those who disobey. They have a huge issue with deserters.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they were found eating kaviar off each others nibbles.
Putin wanted him dead without a doubt. He challenged Putin’s authority and marched his forces on Moscow. The Wagner group made Putin look like a scared little bitch, which he probably is in real life, so he’s insecure about it.
Both sides are violent oligarchs that murder people for profit and power. I’ll quote Clarence Darrow here:
“One reason why we don’t kill is because we are not used to it. I never killed anybody, but I have done just the same thing. I have had a great deal of satisfaction over many obituary notices that I have read. I never got into the habit of killing. I could mention the names of many that it would please me if I could read their obituaries in the paper in the morning,”
Sure they probably would kill each other just for fun, but they were also allies until this.
It’s about money. They’re mercenaries. If they don’t get paid, they’ll bite the hand that feeds them. That’s likely why they marched to Moscow. So Prigizhin got paid and they turned around. But what now? Prigozhin has the money. Suddenly dies. Did his mercenaries get paid? Dead men don’t pay bills. There’s no hand to bite. The mercenaries were prisoners before they joined Wagner. It’s unlikely that neither Putin or Prigozhin gives a fuck about them.
If you ask me, it’s really fucking convenient for both Putin and Prigozhin to fake his death right about payday.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they were found eating kaviar off each others nibbles.
I did not ask for this mental image today
I’d hoped he piloted a Kamikaze plane into Putin’s card fortress so both of them could go to hell to meet Hitler whom they admired so much
At this point it’s such a clown show that I wouldn’t be surprised by much.
Prigozhin was thought dead from a plane crash before and arrived 2 days later.
I wish them the best of luck. Not that they have any chance of success but the more damage they cause to the Russian army, the better
Was there actually anything stopping them before, other than some traffic cops with a grenade launcher, and some excavator operators frantically digging up the motorway?
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You forget that Russia had some garbage trucks lined up as well 🧱
We call them tactical landfill launchers.
I wonder if Putin will try destroying the roads to Moscow again.
And run away to hide in St. Petersburg
FSB as an organization needs to die to the man before anything good can happen in Russia.
Not all personnel. Top 1 - 3, maybe.
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Fucken do it then
I’d believe it when I see it. It’s not going to happen.
We all saw what happened last time. Someone got cold feet and then became a pussy.
Doubtful. They are mercenaries and won’t be getting paid anymore. Mercenaries have no allegiance to anybody.
Just because the leader was presumably killed, doesn’t mean they stop getting paid. Do you get fired from your job if your boss dies?
If your boss is the CEO and owner, maybe yeah.
If your boss was the one that had connections with the client, then maybe eventually yeah.
Yeah, was gonna say. A CEO dying doesn’t stop the paychecks in a normal company, but if the CEO was murdered by the company’s only client…
I know of two small ? (Not sure what the cutoff is) businesses and payroll would stop if they died. They would be paid eventually as the companies have assets, but it would take a while for them to pick up the pieces. Basically for one of them their lead saleswoman would have to assume the role and teach herself basically everything he was doing. Instead of hiring HR/AP/Etc. he outsourced everything to programs and other companies other than sales, design and production. I honestly don’t know if the company would survive if he died, which is sad because the lead saleswoman is his wife.
They’re in the hire of Russia, do you imagine Russia is going to pay them to march on Moscow
If they aren’t getting paid, might that instigate some revolt as well?
And who do you suppose is paying them? Putin?
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Idk about that one, they’re employed by Wagner, Wagner is essentially the business entity that allows them to operate as a mercenary group. Who knows how much loyalty they have to their own command structure? If I were the owner of a private Merc army, I would try to instill as much loyalty as I can so they don’t turn on me.
He’s just saying things that sound nice in his head but have no basis in reality.
Nothing he wrote is controversial.
-Mercenaries get paid.
-Mercenaries as a group don’t hold allegiance to a country
-Mercenaries don’t like not getting paid.
I didn’t say it was ‘controversial’, just inaccurate. There’s no controversy about it.
What makes you think military members are more loyal to their nation than mercenaries? Heck, one of my most upvoted responses says “Wagner was more gungho about the war in Ukraine than the military.”
For a lot of mercenaries, the military doesn’t go far enough or give them the freedom to shape the nation how they want.
Literally everything you said can also be said about soldiers, and in most cases it would be more accurate.
Mercenaries have no allegiance to anybody.
I mean, that’s not entirely true. Some mercenaries actually have allegiance to their companies and really care about their goals.
You’d actually be way more accurate talking about soldiers in the state’s military than mercenaries.
This is historically ignorant. Before professional armies, mercenaries would literally have their camps set up in a country that hired them, only to turn and ransack a nearby town after an enemy spy came in and paid them more to do it. Western society literally invented professional armies because of mercenaries.
Even if it’s true…what does that change? I mean, bobman said that some mercenaries have alliegance to their companies. Not countires, companies. So mercs from Wagner have alliegance to Wagner Group, not Russia.
https://piped.video/watch?v=XTOco33mzDw
I’d recommend watching this
You’re comparing apples to oranges.
Oranges? What does Trump have to do with this?
It could be a move to force Putin to pay them off now they are masterless.
I’m sure there would be lots to loot, or taking ownership of profitable ex government corporations…
It would be so ironic if the plane crash was entirely an accident and not planned in any way, but no one believes it because of Putins history. And if they kill him for something he wasn’t actually involved in because of his past crimes ruining his credibility it would be oh-so-sweet
The 'tator that cried wolf.
My Russian friend pointed out to me that Prigozhin was actually on his way to see Putin when he got shot down.
So they all went in one plane…
Yeah that part makes no sense, how dumb do you have to be to put the two main leaders in the same fucking plane flying near the capital
Russia hasn’t been known for great decision making in recent years
Recent? I was watching a video about the USSR losing a whole bunch of their top generals because the idiots went on the same plane to some meeting. They used this little trip for some personal shopping. They bought a lot much stuff and it was improperly secured in the aircraft so it shifted during takeoff dooming them all.
Who knows what Putin told them to get them to visit him? “All is forgiven & I want you to run the ministry of defense”.
I guess they thought no one would blow them up in public 😑
I mean let the fascist kill the fascist ig
ig
instagram??
I guess
Yeah, me too. Must be instagram then.
They should join up with the Ukrainians.
No, in this case the enemy of their enemy is just another enemy.
Better maintain that line
Not really, if they join forces.
Wagner most definitely cannot be trusted.
Nah, they were even more gung-ho about the invasion than regular Russians.
My question is who is going to pick up the tab for these mercs? I can’t see Putin doing it himself, as he wouldn’t want to set precedent… but they are spoiled. I would assume it will be bad for Russia if they don’t keep the money flowing.
The Kremlin has been paying for Wagner from the beginning. Wagner has always belonged to Putin. It’s mercenary status has just been a mechanism of plausible deniability.
The best-trained ones might get onto the Russian military payroll if the Kremlin is smart and wants to retain some of its most battle-hardened troops.
CIA: hold my beer
As long as they’re not killing Ukrainians, then I guess yeah, go do whatever…
This is a greater overall danger than many of you seem to realize. Their leader was a face and figurehead, the real power of Wagner mercenaries lies with the lieutenants. Without him, they are likely to splinter and become more brutal. Some are likely to be hired by the anti-Putin oligarchs, while others may align with Putin. This may result in Russia having to pull out of Ukraine, but that’s not the end of this. Even if Putin is slammed out of power, that just results in an internal power struggle with deadly consequences. Those will not stay inside their borders.
Woohoo unstable country with huge nuclear stockpile.
Is the nuclear stockpile as good as the military equipment they use in Ukraine?
There only needs to be 1 functional one for it to kill thousands or even millions
It takes a lot to launch a nuke and land it accurately. I’m guessing Russia lost that ability years ago and they know it hence the sable rattling.
I don’t know though my instinct says you’re overstating the complexity. Doesn’t really need to “land accurately” so much as detonate above any target population. Could just even be conventional ordinance with a nuclear payload.
I know it’s not simple. Many things need to work in a certain way so they need to be maintained. Batteries must be replaced, systems must be tested frequently and security is very high. This is all expensive and knowing how cheap Russia is and lax their maintenance is, I’m betting many components were stolen which makes a success lunch much less likely.
Russians have been successfully launching Soyuz rockets longer than Americans have been launching space shuttles.
Soyuz rockets do not sit in a stockpile for 40 years without maintenance before being launched.
One has nothing to do with each other though did you hear they just lost their Moon lander?
Ask the Reddit brigade that got shelled to death back when the war first broke out.
All true, but it does not depend on this specific group of folks or the inciting incident of their leader’s death. Violent internal power struggle spilling across borders is practically guaranteed no matter who the actors are. Even if Putin lives a long life and dies of natural causes, that’s coming.
God I hope they go through with this.
They won’t. This isn’t a card you can play twice, and UK.news.yahoo.com isn’t any kind of reliable news source.
It’s sourced from the Evening Standard, but that’s not much better.
The less wagnerites operating on Ukrainian soil the better. The less wagnerites helping illegal migrants to cross Polish-Belarusian border the better. The less wagnerites the better.
Fuck wagner but also fuck the polish border guards for murdering migrants.
I dont give a fuck if they’re considered “legal” or not - they deserve to be treated like refugees not like a political pawn for both sides.
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/polish-border-guards-killed-thousands-of-illegal-migrants looks like the ‘but also’ is disinformation
Just because they aren’t “hunting them down” doesn’t mean they aren’t responsible for their deaths. They have killed them by way of pushbacks, keeping them in the cold and stopping volunteers from helping them. Hundreds have died and have not been recorded while they wash their hands of this abuse.
Poland’s government is extremely racist and xenophobic and used the migrants as an easy way to rile up its supporters, while portraining them as “lukashenka’s hordes”.
Just because something doesn’t ally with NATO narrative doesn’t mean it’s disinformation.
Where is the data supporting your comment “hundred have died”? Open to read more about this.
Like I said, these deaths are not being recorded. Do you know what a pushback is? It’s by definition illegal, so there won’t be any records. Also the deaths happen on the belarussian side of the border, which is even worse with keeping track of anything.
The whole polish side of border has been cordoned off by the army for over two years now, they harass and stop journalists and volunteers from accessing the border. There will never be any data.
EDIT: so many downvotes. Either people don’t want to hear the truth or its NAFO brigading again.
Thanks for the link.
I totally agree. Human lives are human lives. People trying to escape abuse for a better life are just as innocent as anyone else.
Exactly. Poland itself is pretty damn far-right, and while they might be helping Ukraine and Ukrainians, this doesn’t mean their government is not borderline fascist. Someone else below (@[email protected]) provided this link documenting some severe human rights abuses against lots of migrants (some of these are also from the Belarus side too, it’s not just Poland).
Any situation in which a state denies access to people watching for such abuses - like this - is one that sends immediate and severe warning signs to me. Combined with the other stuff going on around LGBT+ free zones, well, it’s worrying imo >.<
Some of this stuff is even worse than what I’ve heard of the US/Mexico border, though it’s all pretty horrific.
Thank you. It’s nice to see someone who can see through the bias. Human rights are for everyone, not just EU residents.
I don’t give a fuck about your considerations either. Our border our rules. Also lol’d at “killing”. If anyone died there it was because of their own stupidity of trying to cross it from Belarus which isn’t a war torn country but they didn’t want safety but rather monies from western Europe.
The absolute contempt for human life and dignity in this comment :/
Its my border too. Jebać pis, policję i straż graniczną.
i ciebie xD
