Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”
And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”
That somebody like Trump has a chance in hell of winning the election again is kind of proof enough that this country is already lost.
Nate Silver isn’t worth listening to.
That being said, I have my contingency plans laid out.
There’s also this:
instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.
Nate Silver knows how elections work. He knows there is no such thing as more money than you need in a presidential campaign. That’s an astoundingly dishonest thing to say from someone like him.
I’ll never trust that degenerate grifter anyways. When I heard he was so cocksure of his stats knowledge that he
lostspent 10k a day on gambling, that’s all I needed to never listen to him again.At the end of the day, his prognostications are a very expensive coin flip.
Edit: see the strikethrough above.
I didn’t hear the gambling thing about him but at this point, I’m not surprised.
Yeah he’s got a new book out which is very Tim Ferris adjacent talking about “professional risk takers” and how they risk it all to win big in their fields. Of course he talks about crypto and AI. He’s a stooge.
His books blurb:
These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.
I don’t have blue sky, but thought this thread was illustrative of the book: https://bsky.app/profile/davekarpf.bsky.social/post/3kzwvdiolld2a
Oh god, it’s like a curated “people you should never listen to” list.
On top of all this interesting and problematic stuff about Silver himself, I think polls are very unreliable here in the post-truth world. Playing spreadsheet games with multiple polls might be marginally better. But IMO the whole thing suffers from GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). People lie to pollsters for myriad reasons. And that’s just the small population of people they can even get a response from.
Also a lot of people just dont do polls, I have been practically spammed by polsters for the last few months via text and I shall continue to ignore them.
Silver is using poll numbers from before the debate. It’s not worthless, but it’s outdated information.
But I want Democrats feeling the pressure and vote like Democracy depends on it, so I’m happy if he keeps fluffing that pillow.
His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it’s only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.
Friendly reminder for my trans bros and sisters, please get your passport squared away and start hoarding HRT in case shit hits the fan.
Come to California. We’ll fight for you.
Unless if you’re homeless, you can go fuck yourself if you’re unhoused.
California spends more on its homeless than any other state. It’s a huge part of our annual budget.
lol no you won’t
If things go that bad, no state is standing up to the power of the federal government.
We do it all the time. We are right now telling the Federal Government that we refuse to prosecute illegal immigrants. Just a few decades ago we did it with gay marriage.
Im not taking the risk, I have to leave this country :c
Where are you going to go? It seems difficult to relocate to another country without dual citizenship
Tbh a country that in many ways is significantly worse, but they have free healthcare and a government too unstable to ban anything (also they have “right of return”). That country is Israel, I wish I had another option yet sadly it’s my only option.
Israel is a much worse place for trans people, with a conservative government that is much more empowered than the USA and much more connected to religions that wasn’t too annihilate trans people and queer people, who’s going through their fascist faze and have been openly harassing minorities within their land and outside too. Don’t go to Israel. If you want some time to get your things ready to leave for a country like Norway or Holland, California is much much better than pretty much any other state in the USA, you might not even need to leave the US by just staying in California tbh, but if you really want to leave the Nordic countries have been doing really well. France is being attacked by fascists RN but the people are fighting back fiercely and minimizing all the real damage, they are another good option. Switzerland seems to be another good option, but I don’t know much about it, but I do have a gay friend that is moving there to live with his boyfriend and he is leaving the USA, so it seems like a good option too
I don’t exactly have the time now for EU citizenship
That’s why I suggested going to California first, there you can have enough time to get yourself a citizenship for a country that is actually better for you
I can’t afford to live in California, heck I can bearly afford to live where I currently live (New York)
That seems like an “Out of the frying pan and into the fire” type of situation.
Pretty much, better then the alternative of dying tho (not by much)
Can you come to Canada as a refugee from a regime that will oppress you[1]? We have a separate track for that and it’s (supposed to be, if you believe the rabid babbling from our hillbilly kings) much easier and faster.
- yeah, either one.
LOL.
“Guy on book tour says something clickable!”
Who cares.
Contingency plans. Yeah. Sure. I don’t think there are any that most of us can make. There aren’t any countries I could move to that would be any better I don’t think. I’m too old, I don’t have degrees, my only job qualifications aren’t particularly in demand because the training for them is fast, and the only family connection to citizenship elsewhere I had is insufficient because it’s too many generations removed from me.
I suspect the cast majority of people who would be even worse off than me under another Trump/Republican administration are in just as bad if not worse a position.
As a green card holder I do have the option of going “home” - except I own a house, have a wife, friends, a job, a car, a phone - all with payments still left on them (especially the wife waka waka waka) - obviously I’ll leave if I’m literally in danger, but if I’m not and it’s just that I don’t like the president and it negatively affects geopolitics somewhat, on a personal level, leaving the country would be disastrous for me.
I know this is a bit away from the subject, but how difficult was it to get your green card? I have a boyfriend in the USA and we’re planning to move in together in the near-ish future but I’m anxious about the process of getting a green card
H1B hire from a ways back. If you can get it in under 6 years, you’re really ahead of the curve. Anticipate lawyer fees and some delay, as a pro who knows the process and a long wait were definitely part of our experience.
Thank you! I read that it takes time and is full of layer stuff, but I just didn’t know how true the things I’ve read up were (I’ve read one person say it took them 7 months from getting married to getting their green card just as an example of how those websites all you their guides for getting a green card)
Fiance visa took about 10-11 months for entry to the country, then converting it to a 2 year green card took roughly 7 months, then when I renewed it they changed it to a 10-year one.
I think it’s different with every type of visa though.
At least go and buy a gun, so when we inevitably hunt for billionaires to cannibalize together, you can at least contribute something, for fuck sake.
Nate silver is an idiot.
Protege of Peter Thiel. Let that sink in.
Show your work. And if it’s just Silver now works at something Thiel funds, don’t bother and rethink your life instead.
This right here is the definition of cognitive dissonance. STFU.
I’m glad I’m a dual citizen, but I’m not sure how easily I’ll get my wife over to the UK.
This is exactly my situation. My kids and I could move over there easily and in an instant, legally. But I’m not sure what the process is for my wife.
Also, there’s more to moving to another country than just the legality (and that aspect alone is insurmountable for many unsuspecting people). You’re talking about leaving/moving/selling all your belongings, vehicle(s), possibly also a home. And going through the whole process of getting a new job, new schools, cultural shock for kids. And transferring money over, setting up be accounts, etc. And dealing with starting from scratch with credit scores and such. And all that would involve moving back to a country that has its own pretty profound struggles right now. It’s a massive headache. But it’s something we are definitely considering.
I know, it’s a really big problem. But my daughter is queer, so if Trump wins, she and I are getting out before Trump takes office. We’ll just have to figure out the rest after that. Thankfully, I have friends and family over there who would be able to help.
You can’t escape America’s influence and policy no matter where you go.
My prediction is that if Trump does win, there will be a civil war within the next 4-10 years. Each side will get backing from separate national groups. Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They’ll probably just sit back and watch the US burn. And staying in that state-of-mind, that would have the potential to spark WWIII.
Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They’ll probably just sit back and watch the US burn.
Hope they’re cool having an awful lot less money then, the US is one of the main powers propping up the oil industry out there. We stop buying and the market collapses. It’s not like Russia is going to step in to buy the surplus, and I doubt China would want to even if they probably can afford it.Edit: Wow, I am completely wrong as evidenced by people below, I admit I did not look this up before speaking about it. That’s my mistake.
Wow, okay, fair enough. Edited the prior comment to reflect this. Thanks for teaching me something I should have looked up first.
All they have to do is sit and wait. The Middle East still produce around 50% of the world’s oil. If those countries have proven anything, it’s that they’re smart and resilient. Someone somewhere is going to want what they have and they could sell it for whatever cost they see fit. All they would have to do is keep their heads down and wait
Oh they’ll keep producing just fine. But when demand suddenly drops to half or less of what it was, they’re going to run into trouble, and fast. America imports an absolutely ludicrous amount of oil for many purposes. If the country collapses, that supply/demand chain dries up.
Realistically, all the American Mega-Barons that are doing all this oil business will just set up shop in another country. Africa, maybe - plenty of open space and not much regulation out there. But that will take time and investment, time that existing oil supply barons may not have.
They’d probably survive, but I have a hard time seeing all of the Middle East just quietly watching America burn down when we account for probably a solid half of their budget sheets in their most profitable sector.
America is now a net exporter and made more domestic fossil fuels last year than anytime in history.
My fear is there will be some form of civil war either way, but it will be much much worse if he wins
That’s for the people who have the means.
I’m fucking broke. Can’t afford to move. Can barely afford rent. I get to deal with it as best I can.
