Jeb! is a hole in the theory, not every major states governor who is the son of a former president can become president themselves.

Overall kind of a lot of turnover actually…only one Clinton became president, and he was never VP. The other Clinton got beat out by the first black president for the nomination in 08, and then she lost to some guy who had zero political experience.

If anything, we learned that being black doesn’t exclude you from being president, being female doesn’t exclude you from being a major party nominee, and you can still become president even running for office for the first time at age 70. The promise of the statement is more true than ever.

What I want to know is what’s up with two-name first names like Mary Jo or Betty Lou. Did that happen before or after the invention of middle names?

Wow I had no idea the subscription was that much. He mentioned it in a video without saying the price and I still wouldn’t do it.

DeSantis was trying to win the 2024 Republican nomination with Covid response as his centerpiece. So he appointed a nutjob to the role.

Nut job is just proceeding to nutjob.

Is this like the one public domain picture of Musk or does he just always wear that coat? That’s the real question.

There should really be a redistribution gas tax, another dollar per gallon on gas which then goes back split evenly to every American. Incentivizes less gas usage while avoiding the regressive nature of a sales tax. Canada has something like this.

Ruinous politically so it would never happen but it would be a good plan.

Pagers were precursors to cell phones, there’s a little screen and it buzzes but the primary purpose is just to tell you to call someone.

Hezbollah is a political party / paramilitary group in Lebanon, aligned with Iran against Israel. And Lebanon shares a border with Israel so a famously fraught relationship there and it has only gotten worse since October. They use pagers because the Israeli intelligence agency is notoriously good and they would likely hack any cell phone.

Speaking of which, Israeli intelligence planted bombs in pagers sold to Hezbollah by a 3rd party over the last 2 years, and recently detonated the bombs, killing or wounding many members of Hezbollah. Also an Iranian ambassador.

He voted for Trump. Not a ton of Democrats do that. Call me crazy but while I’d assume someone who ends up attempting assassination doesn’t like the person they attempt assassinating, that doesn’t mean they are automatically a member of the opposing political party. 1/3rd of Americans are independents.

Feels like it’s more xenophobic. Obviously one assumes many of the referenced people are brown, but they are assumed poor too and we aren’t saying it’s classist. The thing that unites all of the people implicated in the claim is that they are foreigners.

The CEO was just conspicuously spotted with one of these a couple weeks ago, looks like it was a marketing scheme as we suspected.

He’s a paid something or other for them, why?

It’s a chance of winning, not a poll, so 64% is high but not insane. Silver is serious and it’s a decent model. Knowing the model there’s a pretty good chance this is a high point for Trump but it’s not like he’s pulling this out of nowhere, he has had similar models every election cycle since like 2008.

If it’s overstaying Trump it’s because his model is interpreting the data incorrectly because of the weirdness of this election cycle. I personally think that is likely the case here.

I suspect Harris got her “convention bounce” (as defined by the model) right when she became the nominee, this made the model think she was overperforming pre-convention and now the bounce is fading “early” when the model thinks she should still have it so it seems like she’s underperformed.

If this is the theory, knowing how close the swing states are and thus how swingy it can be, most likely this number goes back to maybe 55/45 Trump.

I saw a bird in an airport.

I read the link and saw the numbers. Is there a deeper link that disproves something I said?

If it goes down in value at the same rate as the last month or something, it’ll be ~$1 billion at the end of September. I forget the exact math but something like that.

Trump can sell his 115 million shares on September 25th, everyone trying to get out before that happens.

Absolutely wild campaign finance workaround though. If he sells it all he’s still on track to get $1 billion or so. That’s his personal wealth, which can be contributed without limit to his campaign.

I’m highly suspicious of the results, as you should always be when a group with a stated political goal releases a poll that shows their favored political goal is what a politician should do.

You have to think there was bias in the presentation, eg the question was framed particularly softly like “if Kamala announced she would abide by current US law including the Leahy Law suspending arms shipments until there is a ceasefire which would save the lives of civilians on both sides” or whatever…that is all 100% true and consistent with what they’re saying, but in real life if she did that she’d get millions of dollars of negative ads framing the decision differently.

Or maybe they just ran the poll 5 times and didn’t release the others because this one was the best result for them. That doesn’t make it an illegitimate poll, but it makes it more likely that the numbers are the high end of the potential benefit from such a stance.

One other way this poll could be true but misleading is that maybe this declaration brings her from 44% to 49%, but it puts Trump from 40% to 51%. Or whatever. It’s possible that with no clarity, she goes from 44% to 52% because you can’t literally vote undecided, and the 49% number is actually her doing worse than she would have.

I wonder who Dan Quayle is voting for