It’s not about winning Iowa so much as it is a reflection of national climate. Though Selzer is historically far more accurate than Emerson.

Here’s a comment about why Selzer is a standout in the context of Trump’s previous elections.

Here’s my comment on the same thread which includes [Nate Silver’s writeup] (https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state) on why other pollsters are less reliable right now due to herding. Emerson is the second worst herder on his list.

Now I agree, it seems rather unlikely she wins Iowa. Selzer’s numbers leave room for a narrow Harris loss. I just wanted to provide context on why this poll is vastly more significant than Emerson’s. If she hasn’t made a massive mistake, the national climate is much more Harris friendly than it feels. I won’t let myself be optimistic over this, but it makes it a lot harder to be pessimistic.

Glad to hear! It really is a struggle but it’ll be worth it.

This is generally what I recommend. I’d also suggest going into it as blind as possible simply knowing that it’s a half comedy, half historical drama. It gets pretty heavy at times, more than most comedies. One of my favorite movies ever.

I saw it not even knowing that much and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Great film.

Hi op, how has the journey been going? Are you still trying to lose weight?

Okay so I haven’t heard about her before this but, from this thread and a quick google search, I feel like I know enough. Anyway. I’m hopeful then that the fame will pass— lots of internet fad celebrities fade and become more or less normal people again soon— but she pockets enough money to live a good life and keep paying it forward.

Good luck! You’ll pop open your first lock in no time

Getting started is closer to a tenth of that— the starter kit linked is $10 pre shipping from a brand that is generally considered overpriced in locksport. Buying locks is the expensive part but you probably have a couple of padlocks to start with. And for those £20, you can get the knowledge and basic skills to open the vast majority of locks.

I’d personally recommend JimyLong’s starter kit if you can catch it in stock but hook and turner will work. Then don’t buy anything else until you know exactly what lock you want a thinner hook or different pick for; that set would open about any lock you can find in store. Spending £200+ to start out is more lockpick consumerism than an actual on ramp since you’d likely be bogged down by too many tools.

Or one of the Margot Robbie looking actresses

Was hoping to see Margot Robbie in here requesting Margot Robbie play her

On the house, please come again

That’s the closest to “no you” that I’ve seen in a while, down to using my own word. Any other gems? Should I throw in a misspelling so you can go off on that instæd?

This comic gets the collective despair across so well.

??? reread it

Edit: I feel like this has a hostile tone when it was not meant to. If it helps, read it as “??? reread it :)”

While I don’t care much about the subject, I do actually care about ineffective communication and how it presents. Indeed, I have made a few comments like that— specifically putting the reason a comment failed to communicate— in the hopes that at least one person will avoid that particular pitfall next time. I don’t do it as much as I’d like to because sometimes it’s hard to condense why a comment failed, but this one was pretty easy.

For the sake of argument though, making quips would still be better than worthless comments like your original one even if they didn’t communicate something. Among every form of discourse, quips are vastly better liked than “not true but I can’t prove it” to everyone but the guy being called out.

Nah don’t care, that subject itself doesn’t affect or interest me. Just saying that you convinced no one and that your comment provided no value besides a few upvotes for me, which don’t even matter on this site. I also intended it more for others who might be inclined to do the same thing rather than you yourself.

If you actually ever want to change minds or prevent the spread of misinformation (which I’m still not convinced it is because again, you provided no evidence and I still don’t care), it’s a good idea to actually elaborate instead of just saying “not true”. The only people convinced by empty comments like yours will be convinced the other way by the next evidence-free claim.

Btw I genuinely don’t see how the info would change my life for the better so if you are gonna start trying now, just edit it into your og comment or something, I probably won’t be back in this thread again

I bet “that’s not what happened” with zero elaboration has a single digit success rate

Weirdly, this comment is a little hasty but only because of recent developments. ONN presumably didn’t make enough money so it was canceled, thus they couldn’t keep doing sketches like that. Now that The Onion has bought itself from its corporate owners, ONN is said to be returning. If the new ONN sucks this comment will be accurate though.

I love this one. I sometimes fit “post office box” into sentences just to say it the way Duncan does.

Side note, I saw Duncan’s actor in an episode of Always Sunny a few years ago and it was lovely seeing him. He’s probably my favorite from ONN. The segment about Nigeria where he accidentally reads about Niger is a phenomenal use of visual comedy

How fucking stupid.

“Resorts World Las Vegas is dedicated at all times to ensuring a safe, secure, and comfortable environment for all of our valued guests,” the statement begins.

Resorts World said the latest policy was established “in light of recent events in Las Vegas, and the increasing ransomware threats to casinos and hotels on the Strip,”

Hard to see this absurd invasion of privacy as being for anything but that last bit. Hope this results in significantly fewer guests, but it feels like the vote-with-your-wallet part of capitalism stopped working some time ago.

Wait I’m still a bit confused. Do people use the brush part?