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The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.
Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.
“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.
“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.
Russia is not interested in conquering Ukraine. They’re interested in goals like keeping Ukraine out of NATO, maintaining access to the Black Sea, and not having ethnic Russians who don’t wish to be a part of Ukraine killed on their borders.
I disagree with this. No, I don’t think Russia wants to ‘annex’ all of Ukraine per se, I think the original goal was to invade, quickly topple the government, then set up a puppet state which would be subservient to Russian interests. This would perhaps be combined with an annexation of much of the east. It was set to be a more successful version of Georgia 2008 (which from an operational level was a bit of a screw-up, but Georgia was weak enough that it went well enough anyhow).
Ukraine had signalled its willingness to stay out of NATO before the invasion started. Access to the Black sea was definitely an issue but not the primary war goal, hence why Russia initially directed its most intense attack towards Kyiv (it was not a feint, Russia dedicated a huge amount of manpower here and made an earnest attempt to sweep through the capital here). I think it’s pretty obvious the Russian government doesn’t care at all about ethnic Russians/Russian speakers as this war has made life a hell of a lot worse for most of them. Plus the accusation of ‘genocide’ against the Donbass was vastly exaggerated and a clearly cooked up justification.
What would you call the annexed regions if not conquered? “Liberated”? Get a grip
I would call them annexed. The people in them do not want to remain part of Ukraine, they’re fine with being part of Russia, and that’s the touchstone here.
Russia is not interested in conquering the whole of Ukraine, because most of the people in the western part do want to remain Ukrainian, not Russian.
Do you actually think the referendums were legitimate? In Crimea there likely was a majority who wanted to join Russia but even then the results were way higher than in previous polling. Plus Kherson and Kharkiv areas were and are not pro-Russian since the invasion and the referendums there were clearly falsified.
It’s not a simple ethnic conflict and the majority of Russian speakers in Ukraine do not want to secede to Russia and do not support the invasion. It is harder to tell in the Donbass because of a lack of data but it is still true that Russia orchestrated the removal of independent-minded leaders for puppets from 2014-2018 or so.
I think a firm majority of people in the annexed regions want to leave Ukraine and are at least fine with joining Russia.
What evidence do you have for that? Asking genuinely not to be facetious. Crimea, yes, but the others I am not so sure. I am especially here referring to Kherson and Kharkhiv regions that were annexed as all data I have seen (I can dig some up if you’d like-do not have it to hand) indicates strong support for the Ukrainian govt against the invasion here even if they dislike the government itself.
My understanding is that while Russia annexed Kherson, they did not annex Kharkhiv.
I’m very confident the parts of Ukraine that have been trying to leave since 2014 mostly want to leave. I know ethnic Russians and Russian speakers are most heavily concentrated in the east, not just in the pre-war separatist regions but surrounding them, too. I’m sure war breaking out caused a lot of people who were on the fence to pick a side, and I can imagine someone who speaks Russian at home but wasn’t radical enough to be part of a pre-war separatist movement throwing in with the much stronger country, that speaks their language, that doesn’t have troops running around with neo-Nazi patches and flags.
What I’ve seen is breakdowns of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, which are predominantly in the east. I’ve also seen pre-war election results that show these eastern regions disagree with western Ukraine on national politics.
Sorry, I meant Zaporizhzhia. I am pretty muddle-brained atm as I have my increased anxiety meds dose recently.
Certainly some did, especially in the Donbass regions, but AFAIK never as much in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson-there is significant data to show that, while obviously Eastern Ukrainians have had a difficult relationship w/ the central government, they still opposed the Russian invasion and supported defence efforts.
Yes, you are right, but voting patterns show there is this polarisation between east and west Ukraine, but that does not ipso facto imply support for the Russian invasion, much less annexation into the Russian state. There is polling to suggest that even in Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and such, there was widespread opposition to the invasion and a ‘rally-to-the-flag’ effect had led to a temporary support in all regions (Donbass not included) for Zelensky and for the Ukrainian defence effort. As I say I can go digging for them if you’d like. I am not saying all Ukrainians hate Russian language and that there is no autonomist movements in the east, just that the data I have seen indicates widespread opposition to the invasion and annexations. However, there is a lack of data in the Donbass region so I simply do not know what people support or think in there as the L/DPRs were not democratic.